Ukraine Monthly. November 2013

3Q GDP declined 1.5% yoy, well below our expectations. We had hoped the bumper harvest would temporarily push 3Q growth into the green, but an extended period of heavy rains in September delayed key crop harvesting and negatively affected the contribution to quarterly GDP. Harvesting activities restarted at the end of September and the positive effect of the bumper harvest will therefore spill into 4Q13. Nevertheless, this changes nothing fundamentally. The ongoing decline in industrial output deepened and hit -5.2% yoy in 9M13. Data for cargo transportation turnover (-7.8% yoy in 9M13) and the construction sector (-16.2% yoy) also remain discouraging.

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