Recent macro releases support our view that economic growth will remain negative yoy at least through end-2Q13. Industrial production slowed its decline to 2.2% yoy in April from 5.2% in March, but given the weakness in external markets it would be premature to talk of a sustainable positive trend at this point. There were no major improvements across other sectors in April, keeping pace with 1Q trends. We maintain our projection for a 0.5% real GDP contraction for Ukraine in 2013.

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