January data for key sectors show GDP remains on a negative trend. Industrial production declined 3.2% yoy last month as export-oriented metallurgy contracted 8.6% and machine-building was down 7.8%. As before, weak external demand remains the key drag on economic growth. Cargo transportation turnover fell 13% yoy and construction declined 15.2%. The top gainers in January were agriculture (+5.6% yoy) and retail trade (+12%). The NBU tentatively estimated Ukraine's GDP to have declined 0.5% yoy in January. We project the full-year GDP decline will also be close to 0.5%.

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