Ukraine Economy: IMF deal provides relief, but challenges persist

The renewal of cooperation with the IMF and the launch of a new loan program remains the key determinant of market expectations domestically and internationally. The deal will allow the government to remain current on its maturing debt through 2019 and allow NBU reserves to remain at healthy levels. Economic growth remains robust at above 3%, while inflation is likely to accelerate by end-2018 to near 10%, fueled by buoyant private demand. Unexpectedly, the C/A deficit widened recently, leading us to downgrade our outlook for the FY C/A shortfall to 3.8% of GDP from 2.1% previously.

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