Ukraine Economy: Humdrum Recovery. September 6, 2017

The pace of economic recovery thus far has not been particularly breathtaking as temporary negative factors, especially the suspension of trade in Eastern Ukraine, have prevented a full-fledged recovery after a hard crisis. Mid-term prospects look reasonably bright as the economy continues to show fundamental strength. Key macro indicators, including inflation and the BoP, are consistent with a slow but sustainable recovery. The next IMF review is the key event over the coming month. While not critical in the near- term, securing the next loan tranche is important for the smooth servicing of the large sovereign debt redemptions coming in 2019. 

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