Research

Research

Ukraine Economy: Another small step towards a concrete recovery

Mostly positive economic news materialized in small portions over the past month. A return to growth now looks just a month or two away, with nearly all of Ukraine's major industries positioned for a gradual rebound by the end of 2015. Inflation – currently the key drag on real private consumption – is still fairly volatile in monthly terms, but annual CPI remains firmly on a downwards trend. The hryvnia has fluctuated in an acceptable UAH 21-23/USD range and the market seems confident in a foreseeable future free from major shocks. The IMF has postponed the disbursement of the third EFF loan tranche, but for purely technical reasons. Finally, parliament's recent affirmative vote on a debt operation fits well into the broadly positive macro outlook.

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