Investable Ukraine, Q3 2013

In July, the Ukrainian economy enjoyed its first month of growth in 2013 – 2.4% yoy, according to preliminary government data. The reversal was widely expected: favorable weather conditions have put Ukraine on pace to produce an all-time record grain harvest of over 57 mln t. Agriculture usually makes up 14-16% of GDP in the 3Q vs. 8.0-8.5% for the full year, meaning the bumper harvest will fully offset the decline in industrial output and will keep economic growth positive at least through end-October, by our estimates.

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